Green River - LaBarge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 24 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-25,15203,Daily Model Output (20170624)
2017-06-26,13839
2017-06-27,12622
2017-06-28,11859
2017-06-29,11667
2017-06-30,11565
2017-07-01,11305
2017-07-02,10569
2017-07-03,9763
2017-07-04,8707
2017-07-05,8698,ESP Model Output (20170623)
2017-07-06,8167
2017-07-07,7594
2017-07-08,7016
2017-07-09,6527
2017-07-10,6233
2017-07-11,5817
2017-07-12,5483
2017-07-13,5244
2017-07-14,4908
2017-07-15,4617
2017-07-16,4531
2017-07-17,4399
2017-07-18,4121
2017-07-19,3919
2017-07-20,3692
2017-07-21,3606
2017-07-22,3465
2017-07-23,3257
2017-07-24,3106
2017-07-25,2989
2017-07-26,2904
2017-07-27,2789
2017-07-28,2715
2017-07-29,2700
2017-07-30,2584
2017-07-31,2495


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.