Green River - LaBarge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 25 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-26,14307,Daily Model Output (20170625)
2017-06-27,12255
2017-06-28,11421
2017-06-29,11258
2017-06-30,11222
2017-07-01,10991
2017-07-02,10183
2017-07-03,9305
2017-07-04,8529
2017-07-05,7846
2017-07-06,7939,ESP Model Output (20170624)
2017-07-07,7535
2017-07-08,7101
2017-07-09,6575
2017-07-10,6238
2017-07-11,5928
2017-07-12,5591
2017-07-13,5320
2017-07-14,4990
2017-07-15,4750
2017-07-16,4588
2017-07-17,4442
2017-07-18,4203
2017-07-19,4012
2017-07-20,3789
2017-07-21,3704
2017-07-22,3567
2017-07-23,3355
2017-07-24,3176
2017-07-25,3072
2017-07-26,2964
2017-07-27,2885
2017-07-28,2763
2017-07-29,2767
2017-07-30,2641
2017-07-31,2605


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.