Green River - LaBarge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 26 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-27,12980,Daily Model Output (20170626)
2017-06-28,11404
2017-06-29,11149
2017-06-30,11060
2017-07-01,10916
2017-07-02,10238
2017-07-03,9356
2017-07-04,8575
2017-07-05,8015
2017-07-06,7644
2017-07-07,7639,ESP Model Output (20170625)
2017-07-08,7087
2017-07-09,6608
2017-07-10,6355
2017-07-11,6107
2017-07-12,5803
2017-07-13,5491
2017-07-14,5163
2017-07-15,4973
2017-07-16,4805
2017-07-17,4684
2017-07-18,4425
2017-07-19,4203
2017-07-20,3982
2017-07-21,3794
2017-07-22,3647
2017-07-23,3473
2017-07-24,3302
2017-07-25,3181
2017-07-26,3046
2017-07-27,3029
2017-07-28,2884
2017-07-29,2911
2017-07-30,2748
2017-07-31,2654


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.