Green River - LaBarge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 27 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-28,11684,Daily Model Output (20170627)
2017-06-29,11190
2017-06-30,11172
2017-07-01,11044
2017-07-02,10262
2017-07-03,9329
2017-07-04,8597
2017-07-05,8153
2017-07-06,7955
2017-07-07,7803
2017-07-08,7268,ESP Model Output (20170626)
2017-07-09,7160
2017-07-10,6948
2017-07-11,6703
2017-07-12,6297
2017-07-13,5995
2017-07-14,5670
2017-07-15,5415
2017-07-16,5196
2017-07-17,5008
2017-07-18,4719
2017-07-19,4470
2017-07-20,4179
2017-07-21,3974
2017-07-22,3796
2017-07-23,3564
2017-07-24,3387
2017-07-25,3276
2017-07-26,3144
2017-07-27,3078
2017-07-28,2931
2017-07-29,2927
2017-07-30,2799
2017-07-31,2729


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.