Green River - LaBarge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: July 01 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-07-02,9624,Daily Model Output (20170701)
2017-07-03,8582
2017-07-04,7740
2017-07-05,7406
2017-07-06,7446
2017-07-07,7522
2017-07-08,7431
2017-07-09,7444
2017-07-10,7294
2017-07-11,7050
2017-07-12,6733,ESP Model Output (20170630)
2017-07-13,6397
2017-07-14,6099
2017-07-15,5736
2017-07-16,5377
2017-07-17,5105
2017-07-18,4913
2017-07-19,4626
2017-07-20,4376
2017-07-21,4217
2017-07-22,3992
2017-07-23,3818
2017-07-24,3649
2017-07-25,3486
2017-07-26,3320
2017-07-27,3319
2017-07-28,3183
2017-07-29,3088
2017-07-30,2913
2017-07-31,2847


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.