Green River - LaBarge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: July 03 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-07-04,7286,Daily Model Output (20170703)
2017-07-05,6780
2017-07-06,6592
2017-07-07,6576
2017-07-08,6675
2017-07-09,6878
2017-07-10,6948
2017-07-11,6826
2017-07-12,6579
2017-07-13,6255
2017-07-14,6314,ESP Model Output (20170702)
2017-07-15,5966
2017-07-16,5676
2017-07-17,5313
2017-07-18,4918
2017-07-19,4653
2017-07-20,4404
2017-07-21,4180
2017-07-22,3948
2017-07-23,3754
2017-07-24,3570
2017-07-25,3439
2017-07-26,3230
2017-07-27,3214
2017-07-28,3109
2017-07-29,2954
2017-07-30,2786
2017-07-31,2704


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.