Green River - LaBarge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: July 07 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-07-08,7201,Daily Model Output (20170707)
2017-07-09,7289
2017-07-10,7133
2017-07-11,7051
2017-07-12,6957
2017-07-13,6793
2017-07-14,6474
2017-07-15,5990
2017-07-16,5563
2017-07-17,5189
2017-07-18,5190,ESP Model Output (20170706)
2017-07-19,4873
2017-07-20,4568
2017-07-21,4366
2017-07-22,4079
2017-07-23,3887
2017-07-24,3709
2017-07-25,3506
2017-07-26,3365
2017-07-27,3296
2017-07-28,3247
2017-07-29,3117
2017-07-30,2935
2017-07-31,2785


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.