McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 13 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-14,2783,Daily Model Output (20170513)
2017-05-15,2805
2017-05-16,2736
2017-05-17,2441
2017-05-18,2040
2017-05-19,1751
2017-05-20,1526
2017-05-21,1377
2017-05-22,1346
2017-05-23,1477
2017-05-24,1765,ESP Model Output (20170512)
2017-05-25,1845
2017-05-26,1972
2017-05-27,1938
2017-05-28,1997
2017-05-29,2062
2017-05-30,2109
2017-05-31,2086
2017-06-01,1906
2017-06-02,1900
2017-06-03,1956
2017-06-04,1923
2017-06-05,2068
2017-06-06,1986
2017-06-07,1953
2017-06-08,1913
2017-06-09,1865
2017-06-10,1742
2017-06-11,1704
2017-06-12,1641
2017-06-13,1598
2017-06-14,1465
2017-06-15,1500
2017-06-16,1492
2017-06-17,1417
2017-06-18,1324
2017-06-19,1241
2017-06-20,1201
2017-06-21,1145
2017-06-22,1067
2017-06-23,1071
2017-06-24,980
2017-06-25,892
2017-06-26,798
2017-06-27,806
2017-06-28,743
2017-06-29,653
2017-06-30,592
2017-07-01,556
2017-07-02,518
2017-07-03,520
2017-07-04,457
2017-07-05,426
2017-07-06,398
2017-07-07,402
2017-07-08,380
2017-07-09,358
2017-07-10,343
2017-07-11,344
2017-07-12,326
2017-07-13,313
2017-07-14,297
2017-07-15,284
2017-07-16,283
2017-07-17,271
2017-07-18,255
2017-07-19,235
2017-07-20,225
2017-07-21,217
2017-07-22,218
2017-07-23,218
2017-07-24,214
2017-07-25,203
2017-07-26,196
2017-07-27,209
2017-07-28,209
2017-07-29,209
2017-07-30,216
2017-07-31,203


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.