McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 14 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-15,3354,Daily Model Output (20170514)
2017-05-16,3139
2017-05-17,2763
2017-05-18,2241
2017-05-19,1924
2017-05-20,1665
2017-05-21,1518
2017-05-22,1455
2017-05-23,1489
2017-05-24,1684
2017-05-25,1858,ESP Model Output (20170513)
2017-05-26,1901
2017-05-27,1895
2017-05-28,1989
2017-05-29,2061
2017-05-30,2089
2017-05-31,2068
2017-06-01,1921
2017-06-02,1924
2017-06-03,1978
2017-06-04,1948
2017-06-05,2078
2017-06-06,2046
2017-06-07,2031
2017-06-08,1925
2017-06-09,1923
2017-06-10,1787
2017-06-11,1745
2017-06-12,1681
2017-06-13,1617
2017-06-14,1475
2017-06-15,1505
2017-06-16,1503
2017-06-17,1432
2017-06-18,1389
2017-06-19,1286
2017-06-20,1283
2017-06-21,1159
2017-06-22,1105
2017-06-23,1105
2017-06-24,1004
2017-06-25,907
2017-06-26,823
2017-06-27,832
2017-06-28,744
2017-06-29,662
2017-06-30,604
2017-07-01,557
2017-07-02,527
2017-07-03,527
2017-07-04,466
2017-07-05,431
2017-07-06,403
2017-07-07,408
2017-07-08,395
2017-07-09,370
2017-07-10,355
2017-07-11,341
2017-07-12,324
2017-07-13,322
2017-07-14,306
2017-07-15,291
2017-07-16,286
2017-07-17,272
2017-07-18,259
2017-07-19,237
2017-07-20,227
2017-07-21,221
2017-07-22,218
2017-07-23,224
2017-07-24,216
2017-07-25,210
2017-07-26,199
2017-07-27,212
2017-07-28,212
2017-07-29,212
2017-07-30,217
2017-07-31,205


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.