McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 18 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-19,1920,Daily Model Output (20170518)
2017-05-20,1618
2017-05-21,1455
2017-05-22,1396
2017-05-23,1642
2017-05-24,1864
2017-05-25,2040
2017-05-26,2132
2017-05-27,2176
2017-05-28,2137
2017-05-29,2075,ESP Model Output (20170517)
2017-05-30,2202
2017-05-31,2071
2017-06-01,1993
2017-06-02,1961
2017-06-03,1992
2017-06-04,1953
2017-06-05,2069
2017-06-06,2055
2017-06-07,1967
2017-06-08,1922
2017-06-09,1967
2017-06-10,1831
2017-06-11,1769
2017-06-12,1726
2017-06-13,1668
2017-06-14,1520
2017-06-15,1548
2017-06-16,1541
2017-06-17,1458
2017-06-18,1361
2017-06-19,1349
2017-06-20,1382
2017-06-21,1215
2017-06-22,1159
2017-06-23,1060
2017-06-24,997
2017-06-25,909
2017-06-26,856
2017-06-27,815
2017-06-28,747
2017-06-29,717
2017-06-30,662
2017-07-01,607
2017-07-02,563
2017-07-03,521
2017-07-04,476
2017-07-05,443
2017-07-06,404
2017-07-07,395
2017-07-08,374
2017-07-09,355
2017-07-10,358
2017-07-11,340
2017-07-12,323
2017-07-13,307
2017-07-14,295
2017-07-15,281
2017-07-16,268
2017-07-17,259
2017-07-18,245
2017-07-19,232
2017-07-20,222
2017-07-21,214
2017-07-22,207
2017-07-23,217
2017-07-24,214
2017-07-25,212
2017-07-26,199
2017-07-27,214
2017-07-28,219
2017-07-29,214
2017-07-30,212
2017-07-31,206


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.