McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 19 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-20,1633,Daily Model Output (20170519)
2017-05-21,1502
2017-05-22,1475
2017-05-23,1730
2017-05-24,1822
2017-05-25,1842
2017-05-26,1874
2017-05-27,2070
2017-05-28,2354
2017-05-29,2524
2017-05-30,2238,ESP Model Output (20170518)
2017-05-31,2166
2017-06-01,2000
2017-06-02,1962
2017-06-03,2031
2017-06-04,1931
2017-06-05,2051
2017-06-06,2029
2017-06-07,1952
2017-06-08,1903
2017-06-09,1905
2017-06-10,1773
2017-06-11,1720
2017-06-12,1690
2017-06-13,1598
2017-06-14,1507
2017-06-15,1519
2017-06-16,1511
2017-06-17,1398
2017-06-18,1296
2017-06-19,1277
2017-06-20,1302
2017-06-21,1145
2017-06-22,1106
2017-06-23,1019
2017-06-24,955
2017-06-25,867
2017-06-26,809
2017-06-27,776
2017-06-28,700
2017-06-29,661
2017-06-30,625
2017-07-01,568
2017-07-02,527
2017-07-03,492
2017-07-04,454
2017-07-05,423
2017-07-06,388
2017-07-07,377
2017-07-08,357
2017-07-09,345
2017-07-10,334
2017-07-11,318
2017-07-12,302
2017-07-13,293
2017-07-14,284
2017-07-15,271
2017-07-16,260
2017-07-17,250
2017-07-18,237
2017-07-19,223
2017-07-20,213
2017-07-21,208
2017-07-22,200
2017-07-23,207
2017-07-24,210
2017-07-25,208
2017-07-26,195
2017-07-27,211
2017-07-28,215
2017-07-29,210
2017-07-30,210
2017-07-31,204


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.