McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 20 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-21,1456,Daily Model Output (20170520)
2017-05-22,1441
2017-05-23,1589
2017-05-24,1763
2017-05-25,1846
2017-05-26,2002
2017-05-27,2176
2017-05-28,2124
2017-05-29,1987
2017-05-30,1938
2017-05-31,2394,ESP Model Output (20170519)
2017-06-01,2145
2017-06-02,2060
2017-06-03,2096
2017-06-04,1991
2017-06-05,2069
2017-06-06,2042
2017-06-07,1978
2017-06-08,1902
2017-06-09,1896
2017-06-10,1763
2017-06-11,1722
2017-06-12,1682
2017-06-13,1616
2017-06-14,1514
2017-06-15,1512
2017-06-16,1480
2017-06-17,1375
2017-06-18,1257
2017-06-19,1281
2017-06-20,1215
2017-06-21,1108
2017-06-22,1040
2017-06-23,994
2017-06-24,910
2017-06-25,829
2017-06-26,798
2017-06-27,754
2017-06-28,677
2017-06-29,651
2017-06-30,580
2017-07-01,539
2017-07-02,491
2017-07-03,480
2017-07-04,439
2017-07-05,409
2017-07-06,383
2017-07-07,367
2017-07-08,349
2017-07-09,336
2017-07-10,319
2017-07-11,303
2017-07-12,289
2017-07-13,284
2017-07-14,279
2017-07-15,266
2017-07-16,255
2017-07-17,245
2017-07-18,233
2017-07-19,220
2017-07-20,208
2017-07-21,205
2017-07-22,197
2017-07-23,198
2017-07-24,209
2017-07-25,206
2017-07-26,193
2017-07-27,211
2017-07-28,213
2017-07-29,210
2017-07-30,206
2017-07-31,198


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.