McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 21 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-22,1491,Daily Model Output (20170521)
2017-05-23,1682
2017-05-24,1848
2017-05-25,1923
2017-05-26,2157
2017-05-27,2133
2017-05-28,1998
2017-05-29,1860
2017-05-30,1832
2017-05-31,1862
2017-06-01,1973,ESP Model Output (20170520)
2017-06-02,1923
2017-06-03,2019
2017-06-04,1976
2017-06-05,2099
2017-06-06,2055
2017-06-07,2047
2017-06-08,1964
2017-06-09,1947
2017-06-10,1857
2017-06-11,1771
2017-06-12,1711
2017-06-13,1678
2017-06-14,1566
2017-06-15,1525
2017-06-16,1553
2017-06-17,1431
2017-06-18,1366
2017-06-19,1363
2017-06-20,1236
2017-06-21,1187
2017-06-22,1107
2017-06-23,1087
2017-06-24,996
2017-06-25,911
2017-06-26,851
2017-06-27,817
2017-06-28,750
2017-06-29,669
2017-06-30,614
2017-07-01,584
2017-07-02,526
2017-07-03,513
2017-07-04,468
2017-07-05,443
2017-07-06,400
2017-07-07,383
2017-07-08,360
2017-07-09,348
2017-07-10,334
2017-07-11,317
2017-07-12,302
2017-07-13,290
2017-07-14,292
2017-07-15,278
2017-07-16,270
2017-07-17,266
2017-07-18,245
2017-07-19,229
2017-07-20,212
2017-07-21,212
2017-07-22,211
2017-07-23,203
2017-07-24,217
2017-07-25,211
2017-07-26,204
2017-07-27,222
2017-07-28,218
2017-07-29,216
2017-07-30,213
2017-07-31,204


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.