McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 22 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-23,1372,Daily Model Output (20170522)
2017-05-24,1567
2017-05-25,1680
2017-05-26,1992
2017-05-27,2018
2017-05-28,1947
2017-05-29,1829
2017-05-30,1758
2017-05-31,1743
2017-06-01,1837
2017-06-02,1959,ESP Model Output (20170521)
2017-06-03,2008
2017-06-04,1948
2017-06-05,2073
2017-06-06,1995
2017-06-07,2010
2017-06-08,1924
2017-06-09,1917
2017-06-10,1802
2017-06-11,1748
2017-06-12,1690
2017-06-13,1665
2017-06-14,1564
2017-06-15,1471
2017-06-16,1527
2017-06-17,1397
2017-06-18,1332
2017-06-19,1289
2017-06-20,1184
2017-06-21,1156
2017-06-22,1115
2017-06-23,1069
2017-06-24,974
2017-06-25,886
2017-06-26,833
2017-06-27,797
2017-06-28,726
2017-06-29,657
2017-06-30,602
2017-07-01,558
2017-07-02,517
2017-07-03,490
2017-07-04,455
2017-07-05,427
2017-07-06,396
2017-07-07,377
2017-07-08,357
2017-07-09,342
2017-07-10,325
2017-07-11,309
2017-07-12,294
2017-07-13,286
2017-07-14,288
2017-07-15,274
2017-07-16,264
2017-07-17,260
2017-07-18,241
2017-07-19,223
2017-07-20,209
2017-07-21,210
2017-07-22,211
2017-07-23,203
2017-07-24,206
2017-07-25,211
2017-07-26,203
2017-07-27,226
2017-07-28,218
2017-07-29,214
2017-07-30,208
2017-07-31,195


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.