McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 23 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-24,1578,Daily Model Output (20170523)
2017-05-25,1762
2017-05-26,2069
2017-05-27,2128
2017-05-28,2027
2017-05-29,1817
2017-05-30,1809
2017-05-31,1891
2017-06-01,2122
2017-06-02,2249
2017-06-03,2118,ESP Model Output (20170522)
2017-06-04,1988
2017-06-05,2043
2017-06-06,2003
2017-06-07,1981
2017-06-08,1913
2017-06-09,1923
2017-06-10,1817
2017-06-11,1780
2017-06-12,1711
2017-06-13,1688
2017-06-14,1563
2017-06-15,1495
2017-06-16,1515
2017-06-17,1414
2017-06-18,1356
2017-06-19,1287
2017-06-20,1190
2017-06-21,1135
2017-06-22,1138
2017-06-23,1066
2017-06-24,970
2017-06-25,879
2017-06-26,840
2017-06-27,806
2017-06-28,719
2017-06-29,670
2017-06-30,615
2017-07-01,568
2017-07-02,512
2017-07-03,499
2017-07-04,455
2017-07-05,429
2017-07-06,393
2017-07-07,377
2017-07-08,357
2017-07-09,344
2017-07-10,327
2017-07-11,311
2017-07-12,296
2017-07-13,289
2017-07-14,287
2017-07-15,273
2017-07-16,264
2017-07-17,259
2017-07-18,242
2017-07-19,222
2017-07-20,211
2017-07-21,209
2017-07-22,214
2017-07-23,205
2017-07-24,206
2017-07-25,213
2017-07-26,205
2017-07-27,226
2017-07-28,219
2017-07-29,212
2017-07-30,207
2017-07-31,196


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.