McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 25 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-26,2228,Daily Model Output (20170525)
2017-05-27,2333
2017-05-28,2172
2017-05-29,1951
2017-05-30,1834
2017-05-31,1811
2017-06-01,1983
2017-06-02,2134
2017-06-03,2155
2017-06-04,2100
2017-06-05,2115,ESP Model Output (20170524)
2017-06-06,2091
2017-06-07,2020
2017-06-08,1952
2017-06-09,1929
2017-06-10,1807
2017-06-11,1791
2017-06-12,1731
2017-06-13,1676
2017-06-14,1571
2017-06-15,1500
2017-06-16,1510
2017-06-17,1428
2017-06-18,1369
2017-06-19,1257
2017-06-20,1188
2017-06-21,1105
2017-06-22,1139
2017-06-23,1024
2017-06-24,950
2017-06-25,847
2017-06-26,814
2017-06-27,783
2017-06-28,697
2017-06-29,650
2017-06-30,604
2017-07-01,563
2017-07-02,515
2017-07-03,490
2017-07-04,450
2017-07-05,418
2017-07-06,390
2017-07-07,371
2017-07-08,351
2017-07-09,338
2017-07-10,322
2017-07-11,316
2017-07-12,291
2017-07-13,288
2017-07-14,281
2017-07-15,268
2017-07-16,262
2017-07-17,258
2017-07-18,245
2017-07-19,221
2017-07-20,210
2017-07-21,205
2017-07-22,218
2017-07-23,209
2017-07-24,201
2017-07-25,215
2017-07-26,204
2017-07-27,221
2017-07-28,212
2017-07-29,211
2017-07-30,203
2017-07-31,188


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.