McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 26 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-27,2329,Daily Model Output (20170526)
2017-05-28,2152
2017-05-29,1855
2017-05-30,1793
2017-05-31,1861
2017-06-01,2006
2017-06-02,2118
2017-06-03,2164
2017-06-04,2220
2017-06-05,2238
2017-06-06,2076,ESP Model Output (20170525)
2017-06-07,2059
2017-06-08,1950
2017-06-09,1897
2017-06-10,1786
2017-06-11,1786
2017-06-12,1714
2017-06-13,1670
2017-06-14,1564
2017-06-15,1496
2017-06-16,1502
2017-06-17,1425
2017-06-18,1382
2017-06-19,1265
2017-06-20,1171
2017-06-21,1111
2017-06-22,1141
2017-06-23,1039
2017-06-24,937
2017-06-25,846
2017-06-26,803
2017-06-27,775
2017-06-28,693
2017-06-29,640
2017-06-30,594
2017-07-01,557
2017-07-02,510
2017-07-03,480
2017-07-04,444
2017-07-05,414
2017-07-06,384
2017-07-07,367
2017-07-08,348
2017-07-09,336
2017-07-10,319
2017-07-11,314
2017-07-12,289
2017-07-13,290
2017-07-14,283
2017-07-15,270
2017-07-16,258
2017-07-17,257
2017-07-18,248
2017-07-19,222
2017-07-20,210
2017-07-21,207
2017-07-22,219
2017-07-23,210
2017-07-24,205
2017-07-25,217
2017-07-26,204
2017-07-27,213
2017-07-28,209
2017-07-29,210
2017-07-30,204
2017-07-31,186


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.