McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 27 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-28,2383,Daily Model Output (20170527)
2017-05-29,2006
2017-05-30,1909
2017-05-31,1914
2017-06-01,2000
2017-06-02,2208
2017-06-03,2199
2017-06-04,2108
2017-06-05,2065
2017-06-06,2012
2017-06-07,2119,ESP Model Output (20170526)
2017-06-08,2036
2017-06-09,1906
2017-06-10,1777
2017-06-11,1784
2017-06-12,1707
2017-06-13,1648
2017-06-14,1546
2017-06-15,1473
2017-06-16,1444
2017-06-17,1377
2017-06-18,1346
2017-06-19,1246
2017-06-20,1129
2017-06-21,1073
2017-06-22,1096
2017-06-23,995
2017-06-24,877
2017-06-25,820
2017-06-26,759
2017-06-27,742
2017-06-28,661
2017-06-29,592
2017-06-30,548
2017-07-01,518
2017-07-02,480
2017-07-03,453
2017-07-04,419
2017-07-05,393
2017-07-06,367
2017-07-07,351
2017-07-08,332
2017-07-09,323
2017-07-10,308
2017-07-11,306
2017-07-12,279
2017-07-13,284
2017-07-14,272
2017-07-15,259
2017-07-16,255
2017-07-17,251
2017-07-18,240
2017-07-19,217
2017-07-20,207
2017-07-21,200
2017-07-22,205
2017-07-23,197
2017-07-24,201
2017-07-25,213
2017-07-26,198
2017-07-27,205
2017-07-28,203
2017-07-29,208
2017-07-30,200
2017-07-31,183


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.