McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 29 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-30,2158,Daily Model Output (20170529)
2017-05-31,2126
2017-06-01,2216
2017-06-02,2134
2017-06-03,2181
2017-06-04,2057
2017-06-05,2036
2017-06-06,2045
2017-06-07,2023
2017-06-08,1916
2017-06-09,1923,ESP Model Output (20170528)
2017-06-10,1778
2017-06-11,1740
2017-06-12,1593
2017-06-13,1570
2017-06-14,1463
2017-06-15,1391
2017-06-16,1352
2017-06-17,1280
2017-06-18,1243
2017-06-19,1150
2017-06-20,1032
2017-06-21,963
2017-06-22,934
2017-06-23,884
2017-06-24,785
2017-06-25,722
2017-06-26,671
2017-06-27,643
2017-06-28,560
2017-06-29,517
2017-06-30,480
2017-07-01,451
2017-07-02,427
2017-07-03,408
2017-07-04,381
2017-07-05,362
2017-07-06,340
2017-07-07,328
2017-07-08,311
2017-07-09,300
2017-07-10,286
2017-07-11,281
2017-07-12,268
2017-07-13,263
2017-07-14,255
2017-07-15,244
2017-07-16,238
2017-07-17,228
2017-07-18,220
2017-07-19,206
2017-07-20,197
2017-07-21,190
2017-07-22,192
2017-07-23,185
2017-07-24,192
2017-07-25,197
2017-07-26,186
2017-07-27,187
2017-07-28,193
2017-07-29,202
2017-07-30,193
2017-07-31,177


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.