McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 30 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-05-31,2079,Daily Model Output (20170530)
2017-06-01,2128
2017-06-02,2354
2017-06-03,2272
2017-06-04,2118
2017-06-05,2074
2017-06-06,2051
2017-06-07,1927
2017-06-08,1807
2017-06-09,1728
2017-06-10,1831,ESP Model Output (20170529)
2017-06-11,1770
2017-06-12,1629
2017-06-13,1630
2017-06-14,1497
2017-06-15,1453
2017-06-16,1444
2017-06-17,1363
2017-06-18,1335
2017-06-19,1231
2017-06-20,1115
2017-06-21,1052
2017-06-22,1009
2017-06-23,940
2017-06-24,844
2017-06-25,791
2017-06-26,722
2017-06-27,690
2017-06-28,605
2017-06-29,551
2017-06-30,508
2017-07-01,474
2017-07-02,450
2017-07-03,425
2017-07-04,401
2017-07-05,379
2017-07-06,355
2017-07-07,343
2017-07-08,325
2017-07-09,311
2017-07-10,296
2017-07-11,287
2017-07-12,274
2017-07-13,273
2017-07-14,263
2017-07-15,251
2017-07-16,246
2017-07-17,236
2017-07-18,227
2017-07-19,214
2017-07-20,203
2017-07-21,195
2017-07-22,199
2017-07-23,191
2017-07-24,197
2017-07-25,199
2017-07-26,191
2017-07-27,192
2017-07-28,197
2017-07-29,207
2017-07-30,198
2017-07-31,183


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.