McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 02 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-03,2458,Daily Model Output (20170602)
2017-06-04,2272
2017-06-05,2277
2017-06-06,2317
2017-06-07,2221
2017-06-08,2141
2017-06-09,2008
2017-06-10,1865
2017-06-11,1742
2017-06-12,1628
2017-06-13,1707,ESP Model Output (20170601)
2017-06-14,1553
2017-06-15,1443
2017-06-16,1400
2017-06-17,1332
2017-06-18,1249
2017-06-19,1175
2017-06-20,1100
2017-06-21,999
2017-06-22,924
2017-06-23,853
2017-06-24,778
2017-06-25,709
2017-06-26,669
2017-06-27,638
2017-06-28,573
2017-06-29,517
2017-06-30,481
2017-07-01,451
2017-07-02,426
2017-07-03,402
2017-07-04,381
2017-07-05,360
2017-07-06,342
2017-07-07,327
2017-07-08,309
2017-07-09,296
2017-07-10,282
2017-07-11,271
2017-07-12,258
2017-07-13,260
2017-07-14,249
2017-07-15,247
2017-07-16,231
2017-07-17,227
2017-07-18,219
2017-07-19,206
2017-07-20,194
2017-07-21,188
2017-07-22,198
2017-07-23,190
2017-07-24,190
2017-07-25,188
2017-07-26,180
2017-07-27,177
2017-07-28,191
2017-07-29,191
2017-07-30,187
2017-07-31,176


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.