McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 03 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-04,2516,Daily Model Output (20170603)
2017-06-05,2218
2017-06-06,2221
2017-06-07,2192
2017-06-08,2118
2017-06-09,2039
2017-06-10,1914
2017-06-11,1789
2017-06-12,1653
2017-06-13,1476
2017-06-14,1537,ESP Model Output (20170602)
2017-06-15,1442
2017-06-16,1406
2017-06-17,1337
2017-06-18,1267
2017-06-19,1196
2017-06-20,1112
2017-06-21,1016
2017-06-22,939
2017-06-23,863
2017-06-24,783
2017-06-25,721
2017-06-26,673
2017-06-27,648
2017-06-28,585
2017-06-29,528
2017-06-30,486
2017-07-01,454
2017-07-02,426
2017-07-03,402
2017-07-04,382
2017-07-05,361
2017-07-06,343
2017-07-07,327
2017-07-08,310
2017-07-09,296
2017-07-10,282
2017-07-11,273
2017-07-12,260
2017-07-13,259
2017-07-14,250
2017-07-15,245
2017-07-16,231
2017-07-17,225
2017-07-18,219
2017-07-19,206
2017-07-20,195
2017-07-21,188
2017-07-22,195
2017-07-23,188
2017-07-24,190
2017-07-25,189
2017-07-26,180
2017-07-27,177
2017-07-28,190
2017-07-29,191
2017-07-30,188
2017-07-31,176


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.