McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 04 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-05,2707,Daily Model Output (20170604)
2017-06-06,2636
2017-06-07,2558
2017-06-08,2275
2017-06-09,2165
2017-06-10,2025
2017-06-11,1851
2017-06-12,1632
2017-06-13,1436
2017-06-14,1318
2017-06-15,1380,ESP Model Output (20170603)
2017-06-16,1361
2017-06-17,1282
2017-06-18,1230
2017-06-19,1161
2017-06-20,1069
2017-06-21,991
2017-06-22,911
2017-06-23,852
2017-06-24,765
2017-06-25,711
2017-06-26,657
2017-06-27,619
2017-06-28,567
2017-06-29,514
2017-06-30,478
2017-07-01,449
2017-07-02,421
2017-07-03,396
2017-07-04,376
2017-07-05,356
2017-07-06,338
2017-07-07,322
2017-07-08,305
2017-07-09,292
2017-07-10,278
2017-07-11,270
2017-07-12,258
2017-07-13,252
2017-07-14,247
2017-07-15,242
2017-07-16,228
2017-07-17,222
2017-07-18,216
2017-07-19,204
2017-07-20,194
2017-07-21,186
2017-07-22,190
2017-07-23,183
2017-07-24,188
2017-07-25,187
2017-07-26,179
2017-07-27,177
2017-07-28,183
2017-07-29,188
2017-07-30,186
2017-07-31,175


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.