McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 05 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-06,2746,Daily Model Output (20170605)
2017-06-07,2693
2017-06-08,2548
2017-06-09,2389
2017-06-10,2200
2017-06-11,2021
2017-06-12,1753
2017-06-13,1509
2017-06-14,1384
2017-06-15,1308
2017-06-16,1388,ESP Model Output (20170604)
2017-06-17,1360
2017-06-18,1312
2017-06-19,1236
2017-06-20,1129
2017-06-21,1084
2017-06-22,974
2017-06-23,905
2017-06-24,814
2017-06-25,748
2017-06-26,702
2017-06-27,664
2017-06-28,607
2017-06-29,549
2017-06-30,508
2017-07-01,476
2017-07-02,446
2017-07-03,420
2017-07-04,399
2017-07-05,377
2017-07-06,355
2017-07-07,340
2017-07-08,322
2017-07-09,308
2017-07-10,293
2017-07-11,288
2017-07-12,275
2017-07-13,263
2017-07-14,257
2017-07-15,251
2017-07-16,235
2017-07-17,230
2017-07-18,224
2017-07-19,211
2017-07-20,200
2017-07-21,192
2017-07-22,195
2017-07-23,188
2017-07-24,192
2017-07-25,192
2017-07-26,184
2017-07-27,182
2017-07-28,191
2017-07-29,196
2017-07-30,189
2017-07-31,180


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.