McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 06 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-07,2715,Daily Model Output (20170606)
2017-06-08,2505
2017-06-09,2347
2017-06-10,2184
2017-06-11,2038
2017-06-12,1816
2017-06-13,1563
2017-06-14,1359
2017-06-15,1224
2017-06-16,1154
2017-06-17,1287,ESP Model Output (20170605)
2017-06-18,1275
2017-06-19,1205
2017-06-20,1121
2017-06-21,1072
2017-06-22,967
2017-06-23,877
2017-06-24,801
2017-06-25,746
2017-06-26,688
2017-06-27,632
2017-06-28,583
2017-06-29,538
2017-06-30,501
2017-07-01,469
2017-07-02,441
2017-07-03,417
2017-07-04,395
2017-07-05,373
2017-07-06,353
2017-07-07,337
2017-07-08,320
2017-07-09,305
2017-07-10,291
2017-07-11,278
2017-07-12,265
2017-07-13,260
2017-07-14,255
2017-07-15,250
2017-07-16,234
2017-07-17,230
2017-07-18,222
2017-07-19,209
2017-07-20,199
2017-07-21,191
2017-07-22,196
2017-07-23,189
2017-07-24,191
2017-07-25,191
2017-07-26,183
2017-07-27,183
2017-07-28,193
2017-07-29,196
2017-07-30,188
2017-07-31,180


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.