McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 07 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-08,2433,Daily Model Output (20170607)
2017-06-09,2391
2017-06-10,2256
2017-06-11,2086
2017-06-12,1914
2017-06-13,1676
2017-06-14,1466
2017-06-15,1217
2017-06-16,1124
2017-06-17,1100
2017-06-18,1191,ESP Model Output (20170606)
2017-06-19,1146
2017-06-20,1087
2017-06-21,1029
2017-06-22,927
2017-06-23,840
2017-06-24,772
2017-06-25,705
2017-06-26,648
2017-06-27,602
2017-06-28,565
2017-06-29,518
2017-06-30,483
2017-07-01,456
2017-07-02,429
2017-07-03,408
2017-07-04,387
2017-07-05,365
2017-07-06,347
2017-07-07,331
2017-07-08,315
2017-07-09,300
2017-07-10,286
2017-07-11,273
2017-07-12,261
2017-07-13,256
2017-07-14,252
2017-07-15,248
2017-07-16,231
2017-07-17,227
2017-07-18,219
2017-07-19,206
2017-07-20,197
2017-07-21,189
2017-07-22,194
2017-07-23,187
2017-07-24,187
2017-07-25,190
2017-07-26,180
2017-07-27,181
2017-07-28,186
2017-07-29,191
2017-07-30,187
2017-07-31,176


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.