McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 08 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-09,2403,Daily Model Output (20170608)
2017-06-10,2271
2017-06-11,2133
2017-06-12,1961
2017-06-13,1778
2017-06-14,1576
2017-06-15,1289
2017-06-16,1156
2017-06-17,1102
2017-06-18,1079
2017-06-19,1092,ESP Model Output (20170607)
2017-06-20,1059
2017-06-21,1012
2017-06-22,937
2017-06-23,849
2017-06-24,777
2017-06-25,703
2017-06-26,646
2017-06-27,606
2017-06-28,564
2017-06-29,517
2017-06-30,483
2017-07-01,454
2017-07-02,428
2017-07-03,406
2017-07-04,385
2017-07-05,365
2017-07-06,344
2017-07-07,330
2017-07-08,313
2017-07-09,299
2017-07-10,284
2017-07-11,273
2017-07-12,261
2017-07-13,255
2017-07-14,252
2017-07-15,247
2017-07-16,231
2017-07-17,227
2017-07-18,219
2017-07-19,206
2017-07-20,197
2017-07-21,188
2017-07-22,194
2017-07-23,186
2017-07-24,186
2017-07-25,190
2017-07-26,180
2017-07-27,180
2017-07-28,186
2017-07-29,192
2017-07-30,187
2017-07-31,176


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.