McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 09 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-10,2608,Daily Model Output (20170609)
2017-06-11,2432
2017-06-12,2201
2017-06-13,1963
2017-06-14,1702
2017-06-15,1356
2017-06-16,1197
2017-06-17,1108
2017-06-18,1044
2017-06-19,974
2017-06-20,1054,ESP Model Output (20170608)
2017-06-21,999
2017-06-22,923
2017-06-23,838
2017-06-24,761
2017-06-25,693
2017-06-26,642
2017-06-27,605
2017-06-28,559
2017-06-29,510
2017-06-30,481
2017-07-01,452
2017-07-02,427
2017-07-03,405
2017-07-04,383
2017-07-05,363
2017-07-06,342
2017-07-07,331
2017-07-08,312
2017-07-09,300
2017-07-10,285
2017-07-11,273
2017-07-12,260
2017-07-13,254
2017-07-14,251
2017-07-15,246
2017-07-16,234
2017-07-17,226
2017-07-18,218
2017-07-19,205
2017-07-20,196
2017-07-21,188
2017-07-22,193
2017-07-23,185
2017-07-24,187
2017-07-25,190
2017-07-26,181
2017-07-27,179
2017-07-28,186
2017-07-29,191
2017-07-30,186
2017-07-31,175


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.