McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 10 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-11,2482,Daily Model Output (20170610)
2017-06-12,2418
2017-06-13,2232
2017-06-14,1916
2017-06-15,1512
2017-06-16,1340
2017-06-17,1283
2017-06-18,1255
2017-06-19,1218
2017-06-20,1177
2017-06-21,918,ESP Model Output (20170609)
2017-06-22,868
2017-06-23,797
2017-06-24,729
2017-06-25,668
2017-06-26,612
2017-06-27,572
2017-06-28,529
2017-06-29,495
2017-06-30,461
2017-07-01,442
2017-07-02,416
2017-07-03,393
2017-07-04,372
2017-07-05,354
2017-07-06,335
2017-07-07,322
2017-07-08,304
2017-07-09,292
2017-07-10,280
2017-07-11,267
2017-07-12,255
2017-07-13,250
2017-07-14,247
2017-07-15,240
2017-07-16,230
2017-07-17,221
2017-07-18,213
2017-07-19,202
2017-07-20,193
2017-07-21,185
2017-07-22,188
2017-07-23,181
2017-07-24,183
2017-07-25,185
2017-07-26,178
2017-07-27,178
2017-07-28,183
2017-07-29,183
2017-07-30,184
2017-07-31,173


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.