McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 11 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-12,2391,Daily Model Output (20170611)
2017-06-13,2261
2017-06-14,1968
2017-06-15,1570
2017-06-16,1371
2017-06-17,1286
2017-06-18,1248
2017-06-19,1206
2017-06-20,1164
2017-06-21,1098
2017-06-22,1016,ESP Model Output (20170610)
2017-06-23,917
2017-06-24,836
2017-06-25,759
2017-06-26,697
2017-06-27,647
2017-06-28,597
2017-06-29,555
2017-06-30,511
2017-07-01,483
2017-07-02,454
2017-07-03,429
2017-07-04,407
2017-07-05,385
2017-07-06,365
2017-07-07,350
2017-07-08,330
2017-07-09,316
2017-07-10,302
2017-07-11,289
2017-07-12,274
2017-07-13,266
2017-07-14,266
2017-07-15,254
2017-07-16,243
2017-07-17,233
2017-07-18,231
2017-07-19,217
2017-07-20,206
2017-07-21,198
2017-07-22,200
2017-07-23,192
2017-07-24,191
2017-07-25,195
2017-07-26,187
2017-07-27,186
2017-07-28,191
2017-07-29,197
2017-07-30,191
2017-07-31,180


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.