McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 12 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-13,2093,Daily Model Output (20170612)
2017-06-14,1917
2017-06-15,1564
2017-06-16,1386
2017-06-17,1316
2017-06-18,1286
2017-06-19,1237
2017-06-20,1170
2017-06-21,1097
2017-06-22,1014
2017-06-23,902,ESP Model Output (20170611)
2017-06-24,819
2017-06-25,747
2017-06-26,681
2017-06-27,625
2017-06-28,583
2017-06-29,542
2017-06-30,506
2017-07-01,477
2017-07-02,450
2017-07-03,426
2017-07-04,403
2017-07-05,382
2017-07-06,363
2017-07-07,344
2017-07-08,327
2017-07-09,311
2017-07-10,298
2017-07-11,286
2017-07-12,270
2017-07-13,265
2017-07-14,264
2017-07-15,252
2017-07-16,241
2017-07-17,232
2017-07-18,228
2017-07-19,215
2017-07-20,204
2017-07-21,196
2017-07-22,198
2017-07-23,190
2017-07-24,190
2017-07-25,192
2017-07-26,185
2017-07-27,186
2017-07-28,188
2017-07-29,194
2017-07-30,190
2017-07-31,180


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.