McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 13 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-14,1885,Daily Model Output (20170613)
2017-06-15,1648
2017-06-16,1455
2017-06-17,1376
2017-06-18,1300
2017-06-19,1232
2017-06-20,1188
2017-06-21,1112
2017-06-22,1020
2017-06-23,927
2017-06-24,819,ESP Model Output (20170612)
2017-06-25,743
2017-06-26,682
2017-06-27,624
2017-06-28,579
2017-06-29,540
2017-06-30,507
2017-07-01,474
2017-07-02,446
2017-07-03,421
2017-07-04,400
2017-07-05,379
2017-07-06,360
2017-07-07,345
2017-07-08,327
2017-07-09,312
2017-07-10,299
2017-07-11,287
2017-07-12,271
2017-07-13,265
2017-07-14,260
2017-07-15,248
2017-07-16,237
2017-07-17,231
2017-07-18,228
2017-07-19,215
2017-07-20,204
2017-07-21,196
2017-07-22,198
2017-07-23,191
2017-07-24,193
2017-07-25,193
2017-07-26,186
2017-07-27,186
2017-07-28,193
2017-07-29,194
2017-07-30,190
2017-07-31,180


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.