McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 14 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-15,1630,Daily Model Output (20170614)
2017-06-16,1438
2017-06-17,1353
2017-06-18,1290
2017-06-19,1240
2017-06-20,1185
2017-06-21,1120
2017-06-22,1043
2017-06-23,952
2017-06-24,868
2017-06-25,737,ESP Model Output (20170613)
2017-06-26,672
2017-06-27,620
2017-06-28,578
2017-06-29,539
2017-06-30,502
2017-07-01,471
2017-07-02,444
2017-07-03,420
2017-07-04,400
2017-07-05,379
2017-07-06,360
2017-07-07,343
2017-07-08,325
2017-07-09,309
2017-07-10,297
2017-07-11,285
2017-07-12,270
2017-07-13,264
2017-07-14,259
2017-07-15,247
2017-07-16,236
2017-07-17,231
2017-07-18,227
2017-07-19,212
2017-07-20,204
2017-07-21,196
2017-07-22,197
2017-07-23,187
2017-07-24,188
2017-07-25,194
2017-07-26,187
2017-07-27,186
2017-07-28,191
2017-07-29,192
2017-07-30,190
2017-07-31,180


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.