McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 15 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-16,1469,Daily Model Output (20170615)
2017-06-17,1409
2017-06-18,1388
2017-06-19,1368
2017-06-20,1295
2017-06-21,1217
2017-06-22,1129
2017-06-23,1025
2017-06-24,927
2017-06-25,840
2017-06-26,696,ESP Model Output (20170614)
2017-06-27,638
2017-06-28,588
2017-06-29,548
2017-06-30,509
2017-07-01,476
2017-07-02,447
2017-07-03,422
2017-07-04,400
2017-07-05,380
2017-07-06,360
2017-07-07,345
2017-07-08,327
2017-07-09,311
2017-07-10,299
2017-07-11,285
2017-07-12,271
2017-07-13,262
2017-07-14,261
2017-07-15,249
2017-07-16,238
2017-07-17,231
2017-07-18,229
2017-07-19,211
2017-07-20,204
2017-07-21,197
2017-07-22,198
2017-07-23,188
2017-07-24,188
2017-07-25,192
2017-07-26,185
2017-07-27,186
2017-07-28,194
2017-07-29,194
2017-07-30,191
2017-07-31,181


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.