McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 16 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-17,1466,Daily Model Output (20170616)
2017-06-18,1423
2017-06-19,1380
2017-06-20,1307
2017-06-21,1227
2017-06-22,1137
2017-06-23,1027
2017-06-24,919
2017-06-25,817
2017-06-26,729
2017-06-27,675,ESP Model Output (20170615)
2017-06-28,614
2017-06-29,563
2017-06-30,522
2017-07-01,490
2017-07-02,459
2017-07-03,433
2017-07-04,409
2017-07-05,388
2017-07-06,368
2017-07-07,354
2017-07-08,335
2017-07-09,319
2017-07-10,304
2017-07-11,290
2017-07-12,276
2017-07-13,269
2017-07-14,265
2017-07-15,253
2017-07-16,241
2017-07-17,236
2017-07-18,233
2017-07-19,215
2017-07-20,208
2017-07-21,200
2017-07-22,201
2017-07-23,191
2017-07-24,191
2017-07-25,194
2017-07-26,187
2017-07-27,189
2017-07-28,197
2017-07-29,197
2017-07-30,193
2017-07-31,182


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.