McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 18 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-19,1476,Daily Model Output (20170618)
2017-06-20,1324
2017-06-21,1230
2017-06-22,1130
2017-06-23,1025
2017-06-24,917
2017-06-25,814
2017-06-26,722
2017-06-27,657
2017-06-28,608
2017-06-29,555,ESP Model Output (20170617)
2017-06-30,516
2017-07-01,484
2017-07-02,456
2017-07-03,430
2017-07-04,408
2017-07-05,387
2017-07-06,367
2017-07-07,348
2017-07-08,331
2017-07-09,315
2017-07-10,300
2017-07-11,286
2017-07-12,272
2017-07-13,261
2017-07-14,261
2017-07-15,254
2017-07-16,235
2017-07-17,233
2017-07-18,225
2017-07-19,214
2017-07-20,206
2017-07-21,197
2017-07-22,192
2017-07-23,189
2017-07-24,191
2017-07-25,193
2017-07-26,187
2017-07-27,189
2017-07-28,194
2017-07-29,196
2017-07-30,193
2017-07-31,183


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.