McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 21 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-22,1300,Daily Model Output (20170621)
2017-06-23,1214
2017-06-24,1053
2017-06-25,923
2017-06-26,814
2017-06-27,736
2017-06-28,667
2017-06-29,616
2017-06-30,574
2017-07-01,540
2017-07-02,493,ESP Model Output (20170620)
2017-07-03,464
2017-07-04,438
2017-07-05,414
2017-07-06,392
2017-07-07,374
2017-07-08,355
2017-07-09,337
2017-07-10,321
2017-07-11,305
2017-07-12,291
2017-07-13,277
2017-07-14,276
2017-07-15,268
2017-07-16,249
2017-07-17,244
2017-07-18,237
2017-07-19,224
2017-07-20,216
2017-07-21,207
2017-07-22,200
2017-07-23,198
2017-07-24,197
2017-07-25,200
2017-07-26,194
2017-07-27,196
2017-07-28,200
2017-07-29,206
2017-07-30,198
2017-07-31,187


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.