McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 22 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-06-23,1171,Daily Model Output (20170622)
2017-06-24,1040
2017-06-25,933
2017-06-26,827
2017-06-27,748
2017-06-28,687
2017-06-29,631
2017-06-30,589
2017-07-01,553
2017-07-02,522
2017-07-03,464,ESP Model Output (20170621)
2017-07-04,438
2017-07-05,415
2017-07-06,393
2017-07-07,372
2017-07-08,353
2017-07-09,336
2017-07-10,320
2017-07-11,305
2017-07-12,290
2017-07-13,277
2017-07-14,277
2017-07-15,263
2017-07-16,249
2017-07-17,238
2017-07-18,234
2017-07-19,222
2017-07-20,213
2017-07-21,206
2017-07-22,198
2017-07-23,192
2017-07-24,197
2017-07-25,198
2017-07-26,194
2017-07-27,195
2017-07-28,197
2017-07-29,199
2017-07-30,198
2017-07-31,187


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.