McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 30 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2017-07-01,487,Daily Model Output (20170630)
2017-07-02,475
2017-07-03,434
2017-07-04,407
2017-07-05,384
2017-07-06,362
2017-07-07,342
2017-07-08,324
2017-07-09,306
2017-07-10,290
2017-07-11,304,ESP Model Output (20170629)
2017-07-12,289
2017-07-13,276
2017-07-14,263
2017-07-15,251
2017-07-16,240
2017-07-17,232
2017-07-18,224
2017-07-19,215
2017-07-20,206
2017-07-21,198
2017-07-22,193
2017-07-23,189
2017-07-24,183
2017-07-25,198
2017-07-26,192
2017-07-27,188
2017-07-28,183
2017-07-29,176
2017-07-30,190
2017-07-31,183


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.