McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 17 2018

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology

DATE,TOTAL,
2018-05-18,440,Daily Model Output (20180517)
2018-05-19,438
2018-05-20,393
2018-05-21,349
2018-05-22,324
2018-05-23,319
2018-05-24,289
2018-05-25,255
2018-05-26,230
2018-05-27,214
2018-05-28,200
2018-05-29,189
2018-05-30,179
2018-05-31,170
2018-06-01,161
2018-06-02,174,ESP Model Output (20180516)
2018-06-03,165
2018-06-04,158
2018-06-05,152
2018-06-06,145
2018-06-07,139
2018-06-08,132
2018-06-09,127
2018-06-10,120
2018-06-11,118
2018-06-12,113
2018-06-13,108
2018-06-14,104
2018-06-15,100
2018-06-16,99
2018-06-17,95
2018-06-18,91
2018-06-19,87
2018-06-20,83
2018-06-21,80
2018-06-22,77
2018-06-23,76
2018-06-24,73
2018-06-25,71
2018-06-26,68
2018-06-27,67
2018-06-28,67
2018-06-29,65
2018-06-30,63
2018-07-01,61
2018-07-02,59
2018-07-03,57
2018-07-04,56
2018-07-05,54
2018-07-06,53
2018-07-07,57
2018-07-08,52
2018-07-09,53
2018-07-10,53
2018-07-11,51
2018-07-12,50
2018-07-13,48
2018-07-14,48
2018-07-15,50
2018-07-16,50
2018-07-17,51
2018-07-18,50
2018-07-19,48
2018-07-20,46
2018-07-21,46
2018-07-22,47
2018-07-23,49
2018-07-24,53
2018-07-25,57
2018-07-26,57
2018-07-27,54
2018-07-28,59
2018-07-29,67
2018-07-30,75
2018-07-31,66


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-15 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 15 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 16 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model. Some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs; diversions; etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.