SLCESPCO
National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
May 2, 2014

San Juan Basin Special Forecast Group

May Final Forecasts

Seasonal and Monthly forecasts for 2014
Forecast volumes in thousands of acre-feet (KAF)
Exceedance probabilities in percent


Rio Blanco  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    25.0    31.0    37.0        8.4  


Navajo-Chromo  FORECAST                OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    29.0    37.0    44.0        7.5  

Little Navajo near Chromo FORECAST     OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr
   Apr-Jul     2.8     3.3    4.0         1.0
       May     1.4     1.7    2.3
       Jun     0.3     0.4    0.7
       Jul     0.1     0.2    0.3 

Vallecito Reservoir  FORECAST          OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul   134.0   167.0   205.0       28.0  
       May    48.0    62.0    75.0
       Jun    44.0    56.0    70.0
       Jul    14.0    21.0    32.0


Navajo Reservoir  FORECAST             OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul   370.0   460.0   540.0      123.0  
       May   155.0   190.0   220.0
       Jun    85.0   124.0   145.0
       Jul     7.0    23.0    52.0


Animas - Durango  FORECAST             OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul   325.0   380.0   460.0       52.0  
       May   120.0   140.0   165.0
       Jun   117.0   136.0   159.0
       Jul    36.0    52.0    84.0


Lemon Reservoir FORECAST               OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    32.0    42.0    53.0        7.5  
       May    14.0    18.0    22.0
       Jun     8.0    13.0    17.0
       Jul     2.0     3.5     6.0