SLCESPCO
National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
May 19, 2014

San Juan Basin Special Forecast Group

May Mid-Month Forecasts

Seasonal and Monthly forecasts for 2014
Forecast volumes in thousands of acre-feet (KAF)
Exceedance probabilities in percent



Rio Blanco  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    22.0    30.0    37.0        8.4  


Navajo-Chromo  FORECAST                OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    29.0    35.0    40.0        7.5  


Little Navajo near Chromo FORECAST     OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr
   Apr-Jul     1.7     2.2    2.7         1.0
       May     0.6     0.8    1.0
       Jun     0.1     0.3    0.4
       Jul     0.0     0.1    0.3 


Vallecito Reservoir  FORECAST          OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul   143.0   167.0   193.0       28.0  
       May    55.0    62.0    70.0
       Jun    46.0    56.0    65.0
       Jul    14.0    21.0    30.0


Navajo Res  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul   380.0   455.0   525.0      123.0  
       May   150.0   171.0   190.0
       Jun    95.0   136.0   160.0
       Jul    12.0    25.0    52.0


Animas - Durango  FORECAST             OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul   335.0   380.0   445.0       52.0  
       May   120.0   126.0   136.0
       Jun   125.0   147.0   170.0
       Jul    38.0    55.0    87.0


Lemon Reservoir FORECAST               OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    33.0    42.0    51.0        7.5  
       May    14.0    17.0    20.0
       Jun    10.0    14.0    17.0
       Jul     1.5     3.5     6.5