SLCESPCO
National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
July 1, 2014

San Juan Basin Special Forecast Group

July Final Forecasts

Seasonal and Monthly forecasts for 2014
Forecast volumes in thousands of acre-feet (KAF)
Exceedance probabilities in percent


Rio Blanco FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%      Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul    25.0    27.0    29.0      8.4    14.5     1.2  


Navajo-Chromo  FORECAST               OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%      Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul    34.0    36.0    38.0      7.5    12.2    12.7  


Little Navajo near Chromo FORECAST    OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%      Apr     May     Jun  
   Apr-Jul     2.0     2.1    2.3       0.3     1.2     0.5
       Jul     0.0     0.1    0.2
       Aug     0.1     0.2    0.3
       Sep     0.1     0.2    0.4

Vallecito Reservoir FORECAST           OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%       Apr     May    Jun 
   Apr-Jul   146.0   149.0   156.0      28.0    59.0   47.0  
       Jul    12.0    15.0    22.0
       Aug     9.0    13.0    24.0
       Sep     8.0    12.0    23.0


Navajo Reservoir FORECAST               OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul   420.0   425.0   445.0      123.0   176.0   116.0  
       Jul     5.0    10.0    30.0
       Aug     1.0    17.0    40.0
       Sep     4.0    23.0    50.0


Animas - Durango FORECAST               OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul   345.0   350.0   375.0       53.0   119.0   140.0  
       Jul    33.0    38.0    63.0
       Aug    15.0    25.0    40.0
       Sep    16.0    25.0    46.0


Lemon Reservoir FORECAST                OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul    35.0    36.0    38.0        7.5    17.1     9.1  
       Jul     1.3     2.3     4.3
       Aug     1.6     2.5     5.5
       Sep     1.6     2.5     5.8