SLCESPCO
National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
June 16, 2015

San Juan Basin Special Forecast Group

June mid-month Forecasts

Seasonal and Monthly forecasts
Forecast volumes in thousands of acre-feet (KAF)
Exceedance probabilities in percent


Rio Blanco  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May 
   Apr-Jul    36.0    44.0    51.0        5.2    16.4  


Navajo-Chromo  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May 
   Apr-Jul    41.0    47.0    53.0        5.6    14.3  


Little Navajo-Chromo  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May 
   Apr-Jul     4.1     4.5     5.0        0.7     2.1  
       Jun     1.2     1.5     1.8
       Jul     0.1     0.2     0.4
       Aug     0.1     0.2     0.4


Vallecito Reservoir  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May 
   Apr-Jul   165.0   175.0   195.0       18.5    43.0  
       Jun    88.0    93.0   105.0
       Jul    15.0    20.0    28.0
       Aug     6.0    10.0    22.0


Navajo Reservoir  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May 
   Apr-Jul   515.0   545.0   590.0       80.0   180.0  
       Jun   240.0   255.0   275.0
       Jul    15.0    30.0    55.0
       Aug     5.0    30.0    50.0


Animas-Durango  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May 
   Apr-Jul   345.0   380.0   420.0       34.0    91.0  
       Jun   185.0   205.0   225.0
       Jul    35.0    50.0    70.0
       Aug    15.0    25.0    50.0


Lemon Reservoir  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May 
   Apr-Jul    40.0    45.0    53.0        4.8    10.0  
       Jun    22.0    26.0    30.0
       Jul     3.0     4.0     8.0
       Aug     1.5     2.8     6.0