SLCESPCO
National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
May 16, 2016

San Juan Basin Special Forecast Group

May mid-month Forecasts

Seasonal and Monthly forecasts
Forecast volumes in thousands of acre-feet (KAF)
Exceedance probabilities in percent


Rio Blanco  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    38.0    45.0    54.0        7.3  


Navajo-Chromo  FORECAST                OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    41.0    51.0    58.0        7.8  


Little Navajo-Chromo  FORECAST         OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul     3.5     5.0     5.7       1.2  
       May     1.5     2.6     3.0
       Jun     0.7     1.0     1.2
       Jul     0.1     0.2     0.3


Vallecito Reservoir  FORECAST          OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul   145.0   172.0   205.0       25.0  
       May    50.0    58.0    65.0
       Jun    55.0    65.0    80.0
       Jul    15.0    24.0    35.0


Navajo Reservoir  FORECAST             OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul   445.0   525.0   590.0      119.0  
       May   160.0   195.0   215.0
       Jun   135.0   165.0   190.0
       Jul    31.0    46.0    66.0


Animas-Durango  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul   279.0   335.0   419.0       44.0  
       May    95.0   111.0   125.0
       Jun   105.0   130.0   155.0
       Jul    35.0    50.0    95.0


Lemon Reservoir  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    30.0    40.0    51.0        5.0  
       May     9.0    13.0    16.0
       Jun    14.0    18.0    22.0
       Jul     2.0     4.0     8.0