SLCESPCO
National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
June 16, 2016

San Juan Basin Special Forecast Group

June mid-month Forecasts

Seasonal and Monthly forecasts
Forecast volumes in thousands of acre-feet (KAF)
Exceedance probabilities in percent


Rio Blanco  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May 
   Apr-Jul    41.0    45.0    49.0        7.3    16.6  


Navajo-Chromo  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May 
   Apr-Jul    45.0    50.0    54.0        7.8    15.8  


Little Navajo-Chromo  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May 
   Apr-Jul     4.9     5.1     5.5        1.2     2.2  
       Jun     1.4     1.5     1.7
       Jul     0.1     0.2     0.4
       Aug     0.1     0.2     0.4


Vallecito Reservoir  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May 
   Apr-Jul   170.0   181.0   200.0       25.0    60.0  
       Jun    67.0    75.0    85.0
       Jul    18.0    21.0    30.0
       Aug    10.0    15.0    25.0


Navajo Reservoir  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May 
   Apr-Jul   525.0   545.0   590.0      119.0   209.0  
       Jun   177.0   191.0   210.0
       Jul    20.0    26.0    52.0
       Aug     6.0    27.0    50.0


Animas-Durango  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May 
   Apr-Jul   345.0   368.0   405.0       44.0   108.0  
       Jun   155.0   170.0   188.0
       Jul    38.0    46.0    65.0
       Aug    21.0    30.0    45.0


Lemon Reservoir  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May 
   Apr-Jul    41.0    45.0    52.0        5.0    14.5  
       Jun    18.0    21.0    25.0
       Jul     3.0     4.0     7.0
       Aug     1.0     3.0     6.0