SLCESPCO National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah July 1, 2016 San Juan Basin Special Forecast Group July final Forecasts Seasonal and Monthly forecasts Forecast volumes in thousands of acre-feet (KAF) Exceedance probabilities in percent Rio Blanco FORECAST OBSERVED 90% 50% 10% Apr May Jun Apr-Jul 44.0 45.0 47.0 7.3 16.6 17.0 Navajo-Chromo FORECAST OBSERVED 90% 50% 10% Apr May Jun Apr-Jul 50.0 52.0 54.0 7.8 15.8 23.0 Little Navajo-Chromo FORECAST OBSERVED 90% 50% 10% Apr May Jun Apr-Jul 4.9 5.0 5.2 1.2 2.2 1.4 Jul 0.1 0.2 0.4 Aug 0.1 0.2 0.4 Sep 0.0 0.2 0.4 Vallecito Reservoir FORECAST OBSERVED 90% 50% 10% Apr May Jun Apr-Jul 179.0 183.0 193.0 25.0 60.0 77.0 Jul 17.0 21.0 31.0 Aug 10.0 15.0 30.0 Sep 10.0 15.0 25.0 Navajo Reservoir FORECAST OBSERVED 90% 50% 10% Apr May Jun Apr-Jul 560.0 575.0 605.0 119.0 209.0 213.0 Jul 19.0 34.0 64.0 Aug 5.0 26.0 50.0 Sep 10.0 30.0 65.0 Animas-Durango FORECAST OBSERVED 90% 50% 10% Apr May Jun Apr-Jul 365.0 375.0 395.0 44.0 108.0 179.0 Jul 34.0 44.0 64.0 Aug 21.0 29.0 44.0 Sep 15.0 26.0 44.0 Lemon Reservoir FORECAST OBSERVED 90% 50% 10% Apr May Jun Apr-Jul 45.0 47.0 50.0 5.0 14.5 23.0 Jul 2.5 4.5 7.5 Aug 1.0 3.0 6.0 Sep 1.0 3.0 6.0