SLCESPCO
National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
May 16, 2018

San Juan Basin Special Forecast Group

May mid-month Forecasts

Seasonal and Monthly forecasts
Forecast volumes in thousands of acre-feet (KAF)
Exceedance probabilities in percent


Rio Blanco  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    18.0    23.0    27.0        7.7  


Navajo-Chromo  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    24.0    27.0    31.0        7.6  


Little Navajo-Chromo  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul     1.7     1.8     2.4        0.9  
       May     0.6     0.7     1.0
       Jun     0.1     0.1     0.3
       Jul     0.1     0.1     0.2


Vallecito Reservoir  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    53.0    60.0    76.0       14.9  
       May    25.0    29.0    35.0
       Jun     8.0    10.0    15.0
       Jul     5.0     6.0    11.0


Navajo Reservoir  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul   166.0   185.0   215.0       70.0  
       May    90.0    94.0   107.0
       Jun     3.0    14.0    18.0
       Jul     3.0     7.0    20.0


Animas-Durango  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    93.0   110.0   140.0       16.1  
       May    50.0    55.0    63.0
       Jun    18.0    26.0    40.0
       Jul     9.0    13.0    21.0


Lemon Reservoir  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    12.1    14.5    19.1        3.1  
       May     7.5     8.4    10.0
       Jun     1.0     2.0     3.0
       Jul     0.5     1.0     3.0