North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-04-15,824,1285,Daily Model Output
2017-04-16,680,1147
2017-04-17,635,1088
2017-04-18,655,1142
2017-04-19,682,1178
2017-04-20,820,1444
2017-04-21,683,1256
2017-04-22,547,1026
2017-04-23,446,847
2017-04-24,427,801
2017-04-25,658,1151,ESP Model Output
2017-04-26,710,1237
2017-04-27,716,1330
2017-04-28,701,1253
2017-04-29,723,1228
2017-04-30,819,1322
2017-05-01,842,1484
2017-05-02,862,1514
2017-05-03,823,1439
2017-05-04,789,1434
2017-05-05,844,1474
2017-05-06,946,1635
2017-05-07,993,1645
2017-05-08,1020,1675
2017-05-09,1014,1690
2017-05-10,1144,1830
2017-05-11,1159,1835
2017-05-12,1150,1826
2017-05-13,1069,1747
2017-05-14,1109,1739
2017-05-15,1204,1914
2017-05-16,1260,1911
2017-05-17,1342,1964
2017-05-18,1338,1980
2017-05-19,1302,1965
2017-05-20,1339,2006
2017-05-21,1307,1999
2017-05-22,1258,1898
2017-05-23,1340,1901
2017-05-24,1315,1891
2017-05-25,1350,1897
2017-05-26,1267,1861
2017-05-27,1291,1851
2017-05-28,1321,1899
2017-05-29,1307,1910
2017-05-30,1275,1815
2017-05-31,1263,1788
2017-06-01,1169,1729
2017-06-02,1194,1690
2017-06-03,1273,1842
2017-06-04,1280,1827
2017-06-05,1229,1696
2017-06-06,1230,1673
2017-06-07,1260,1710
2017-06-08,1296,1712
2017-06-09,1226,1666
2017-06-10,1188,1599
2017-06-11,1147,1481
2017-06-12,1090,1453
2017-06-13,1100,1454
2017-06-14,1119,1440
2017-06-15,1084,1409
2017-06-16,1037,1442
2017-06-17,1078,1366
2017-06-18,1046,1324
2017-06-19,999,1262
2017-06-20,952,1190
2017-06-21,948,1133
2017-06-22,885,1107
2017-06-23,852,1070
2017-06-24,847,1054
2017-06-25,829,1009
2017-06-26,770,955
2017-06-27,764,931
2017-06-28,680,837
2017-06-29,645,817
2017-06-30,610,756
2017-07-01,540,678
2017-07-02,537,664
2017-07-03,501,620
2017-07-04,474,590
2017-07-05,458,587
2017-07-06,417,540
2017-07-07,368,482
2017-07-08,340,446
2017-07-09,319,418
2017-07-10,291,390
2017-07-11,276,373
2017-07-12,258,348
2017-07-13,245,331
2017-07-14,236,318
2017-07-15,222,301
2017-07-16,211,286
2017-07-17,204,275
2017-07-18,195,263
2017-07-19,184,253
2017-07-20,176,243
2017-07-21,169,233
2017-07-22,164,224
2017-07-23,155,212
2017-07-24,151,209
2017-07-25,147,201
2017-07-26,141,197
2017-07-27,136,190
2017-07-28,132,186
2017-07-29,131,180
2017-07-30,127,175
2017-07-31,123,170


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.