North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow

DATE,LOCAL,TOTAL,
2017-04-16,763,1295,Daily Model Output
2017-04-17,674,1154
2017-04-18,707,1222
2017-04-19,772,1331
2017-04-20,896,1545
2017-04-21,794,1392
2017-04-22,624,1130
2017-04-23,556,1008
2017-04-24,617,1096
2017-04-25,733,1288
2017-04-26,888,1560,ESP Model Output
2017-04-27,800,1485
2017-04-28,770,1332
2017-04-29,804,1392
2017-04-30,827,1463
2017-05-01,884,1567
2017-05-02,865,1542
2017-05-03,881,1561
2017-05-04,821,1507
2017-05-05,879,1489
2017-05-06,1017,1647
2017-05-07,1026,1679
2017-05-08,1003,1712
2017-05-09,1028,1724
2017-05-10,1138,1798
2017-05-11,1143,1835
2017-05-12,1104,1741
2017-05-13,1060,1735
2017-05-14,1091,1684
2017-05-15,1159,1878
2017-05-16,1248,1841
2017-05-17,1311,1958
2017-05-18,1339,1962
2017-05-19,1312,1918
2017-05-20,1304,1937
2017-05-21,1231,1852
2017-05-22,1214,1808
2017-05-23,1289,1877
2017-05-24,1266,1801
2017-05-25,1272,1866
2017-05-26,1201,1791
2017-05-27,1227,1785
2017-05-28,1261,1817
2017-05-29,1247,1804
2017-05-30,1206,1758
2017-05-31,1206,1688
2017-06-01,1139,1694
2017-06-02,1118,1635
2017-06-03,1224,1720
2017-06-04,1219,1751
2017-06-05,1176,1654
2017-06-06,1184,1631
2017-06-07,1227,1684
2017-06-08,1272,1656
2017-06-09,1194,1593
2017-06-10,1183,1606
2017-06-11,1120,1470
2017-06-12,1044,1431
2017-06-13,1084,1434
2017-06-14,1104,1430
2017-06-15,1057,1401
2017-06-16,998,1389
2017-06-17,1040,1321
2017-06-18,1007,1284
2017-06-19,981,1228
2017-06-20,922,1142
2017-06-21,907,1126
2017-06-22,861,1051
2017-06-23,824,1037
2017-06-24,816,1029
2017-06-25,802,981
2017-06-26,751,926
2017-06-27,725,882
2017-06-28,645,793
2017-06-29,623,769
2017-06-30,601,745
2017-07-01,533,668
2017-07-02,509,632
2017-07-03,494,613
2017-07-04,434,547
2017-07-05,440,556
2017-07-06,402,506
2017-07-07,361,462
2017-07-08,336,430
2017-07-09,313,406
2017-07-10,284,379
2017-07-11,268,361
2017-07-12,251,342
2017-07-13,238,325
2017-07-14,229,312
2017-07-15,215,293
2017-07-16,205,278
2017-07-17,203,271
2017-07-18,190,253
2017-07-19,180,243
2017-07-20,172,234
2017-07-21,165,229
2017-07-22,160,221
2017-07-23,153,208
2017-07-24,148,204
2017-07-25,145,198
2017-07-26,138,194
2017-07-27,133,184
2017-07-28,131,181
2017-07-29,128,180
2017-07-30,124,173
2017-07-31,120,168


SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
  - Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
    5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
    forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
    weather forecast changes, so there is increasing uncertainty
    past days 3-5.
  - Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
    This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
    period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
    value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
    the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
  - An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
    daily model to the ESP model, some possible reasons are:
      - The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
        much above or below normal before reverting to normal
        temperatures in ESP.
      - If there is regulation (reservoirs, diversions, etc.) above the
        forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
        how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
        for details on specific forecast points.